Uncertainties in the effectiveness of biological control of stem borers under different climate change scenarios in Eastern Africa

Abstract Climate change (CC) is expected to significantly affect biodiversity and ecosystem services. Adverse impacts from CC in the Global South are likely be exacerbated by limited capacities take adequate adaptation measures existing developmental challenges. Insect pests today already causing considerable yield losses agricultural crop production East Africa. Studies have shown that insects strongly responding proliferation, shift distribution, altering their phenology, which why an impact on agriculture can expected. Biological control (BC) has been proposed as alternative measure sustainably contain insect pests, but few studies predict its efficacy under future CC. Using species maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) approach, we current distribution of three important lepidopteran stem borer maize Eastern Africa, i.e., Busseola fusca (Fuller, 1901), Chilo partellus (Swinhoe, 1885), Sesamia calamistis (Hampson, 1910), two parasitoids currently used for BC, Cotesia flavipes (Cameron, 1891) sesamiae 1906) . Based these potential distributions data collected during household surveys with local farmers Kenya Tanzania, also predicted a business-as-usual scenario sustainable development scenario. We found BC C. will less effective more severe resulting reduced ability curb caused borers. These results highlight need adapt maintain environmentally friendly pest management strategies. The findings this research thus particular relevance policymakers, extension officers, region aid smallholder practices